On Wednesday, 8th April, a state of emergency came into effect for 7 urban areas in Japan: Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama, Kanagawa, Osaka, Hyogo and Fukuoka. This means that the Tokyo, Kansai and Kyushu demand forecasts are affected.
The state of emergency extends through 6th May. Note that this coincides with the end of the Golden Week which is a 5-day weekend (2nd – 6th May) this year. We have introduced a “State of Emergency” variable to forecast the lower load through 6th May. TESLA models are calibrated daily so the “State of Emergency” variable coefficients will be updated daily. Forecasts are updated hourly as new load and weather data become available.
Tokyo (includes Tokyo, Chiba, Saitama and Kanagawa prefectures)
Compared to the previous week, we have seen a ~5% drop in weekday and ~4% drop in weekend weather corrected power demand.
The graph below shows the hourly weather corrected demand for this year (blue) compared to last year (orange):
Kansai (includes Osaka and Hyogo prefectures)
Compared to the previous week, we have seen a ~4% drop in weekday, ~5% drop in Saturday and ~3% drop in Sunday weather corrected power demand.
Note that weather corrected demand for Kansai this year has been slightly lower than 2019.
Kyushu (includes Fukuoka prefecture)
No clear “State of Emergency” induced drop in demand yet. We are monitoring the region closely.
Weather Corrected Demand
All weather corrected demand in this analysis is based off TESLA’s methodology.
Note that weather corrected demand is readily available to TESLA Japan subscribers via TESLAWeb:
Mark Todoroff
Please reach out if you have any questions.
Business Development Director
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TESLA Asia Pacific Ltd
Contact: Mark Todoroff